Georgia: The Prize for Both Parties

Elections at US Senate and State Governor level will be important contests for both parties.

Arithmos Analytics

12/31/2021 1 min read

Georgia was a once reliably Republican state. It voted Republican in 8 of the last 10 Presidential Elections, and has had a Republican Governor since 2002. However in 2018, Stacy Abrams and the Democrats came within just 1.4% of flipping the Governor's Mansion. This narrow miss was followed up by two huge victories for the Democrats two years later. The Democrats flipped the state Blue at Presidential level for the first time since 1992, and won not one, but two US Senate seats in Georgia after forcing run-offs in late 2020. Needless to say Georgia will be a key one to watch

That said the Republicans will have confidence. With such a narrow margin, there is always the chance they can win. The Republicans would be especially well advised to study the Governor's race in Virginia. Georgia and Virginia are on similar trends, as both are Southern States with recent histories of large scale internal migration from other parts of the US, particularly from left-leaning places. In 2019, 284,541 people moved to Georgia and 264,855 moved to Virginia. But despite this, the Republicans managed to flip the Virginia Governor's Mansion Red and captured both other Gubernational offices and the State House on the same night.

Clearly whilst Georgia is now within reach for the Democrats, the Republicans have plenty of fight left in them. Whilst the Democrats will be encouraged by their recent Senate and Presidential victories in the Peach State, these were not overwhelming victories in terms of margin of victory. And as the Virginia race shows, the Republicans can snatch victory with the right campaigns.

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