Are the Democrats Losing Pennsylvania?

The Democrats carried PA in 7 of the last 8 Presidential Elections. But trends show that grip may be slipping...

Arithmos Analytics

12/21/2021 1 min read

Is the Democrat grip on Pennsylvania slipping?

The Democrats once dominated Presidential Elections in the Keystone State. They won the 1992 Presidential Election nine percentage points clear of second place. In the next six straight Presidential Elections the Democrats would carry Pennsylvania. Only Donald Trump’s shock win in 2016 broke the streak, although the Democrats did win back Pennsylvania in 2020. But was this win masking a deeper trend that spells trouble for the Democrats?

Analysis by Arithmos Analytics has examined margins of victory in Presidential Elections in Pennsylvania. In the last three Presidential Elections Dems carried PA (2008,2012,2020) their margin of victory has shrunk. In 2008 the Democrats were 620,478 votes clear of the Republicans. By 2012, this lead had shrunk to 309,840 votes, crashing by almost half what it had been just one electoral cycle ago. In 2020, the Democrats won Pennsylvania but did so with just a 80,555 margin.

The margin of victory in 2012 was half was it was in 2008.

The margin of victory in 2020 was 3.8 times smaller than it had been in 2012 and 7.7 times smaller than it had been in 2008.

This suggests that Pennsylvania is becoming less “Blue” in Presidential Elections. Given the state has a handsome 19 Electoral College Votes, it represents a major prize to whoever can carry it. On these trends at least, the Democrats may find a state they have carried in 7 of the last 8 Presidential Elections is not quite as secure as it once was.

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