Ukraine, GOP and the Midterms

The GOP is divided over Ukraine. Voters are more focused on the homeland.

Arithmos Analytics

3/15/2022 1 min read

Ukraine and the GOP Divides

The conflict in Ukraine has essentially divided Republicans into three groups. The first group might be termed the Neocon or interventionists. These are represented by Dan Crenshaw and Adam Kinzinger, who want firm involvement in the Ukraine conflict, even military intervention. The second group is the non-involvement wing, perhaps typified by J D Vance, who spoke against sending troops or becoming more deeply embroiled. The third and final group see Ukraine as an example of Biden’s failure and weakness but remain agnostic on what to do instead.

It is unclear what role Ukraine will play in the midterms. We feel that cost of living issues like food and gas prices, plus education and crime will be more fruitful for the GOP to concentrate on. The American public is cooler on foreign wars after twenty failed years in Iraq and Afghanistan and feel that the homeland should be the focus. The Democrats remain broadly united, given that Russia has occupied a keen place in their demonology for some time, and may use GOP reluctance to become more deeply involved to fuel accusations of being uncaring or even disloyal. Will the GOP fall for this trap or not?

Perhaps the most revealing insight into what voters think of Ukraine comes from the LA Times. When a potential voter was asked about paying more gas to spite Putin and help Ukraine, he explained that whilst he was sympathetic to the people of Ukraine, the ability to buy affordable gas mattered more. As he bluntly put it when asked if he cared about Ukraine he remarked ““It’s not that I don’t care. Problem is, I care more about gas". The GOP must not be drawn into complex Ukraine discussions, however emotionally compelling, when voters main focus is the cost of living.

The Ukraine conflict remains serious as a test for Biden, NATO and American leadership in the world. Even if Ukraine does not rank too high up the list of priorities of American voters, leaders of both parties will continue to make reference to it.

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